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Bologna vs Lazio Prediction - Monday, 24 August 2026

Competition: Serie A

Date: Monday, 24 August 2026

Kickoff Time: 00:30 (GMT+8)

Last Updated: 2026-08-24T16:14:13.741Z

AI Match Analysis Summary

SCORENEX AI predicts Bologna Win (1) for this Serie A clash between Bologna and Lazio on Monday, 24 August 2026. Our ensemble machine learning model assigns a 44% probability to a home win, 27% to a draw, and 29% to an away victory. The expected goals model forecasts 1.5 xG for Bologna and 1.2 xG for Lazio, totaling 2.7 expected goals. Confidence level: Low. Recommended Market: Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw). Analysis based on recent form, historical head-to-head data, team strength ratings, and real-time odds from major bookmakers.

SCORENEX AI Pre-Match Prediction

Predicted Match Result (1X2)

AI Prediction: Bologna Win (1)

Confidence Level: Low

Recommended Market: Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw)

1X2 Win Probabilities

Home Win (1) - Bologna: 44%
Draw (X): 27%
Away Win (2) - Lazio: 29%

Expected Goals (xG)

Bologna: 1.49 xG

Lazio: 1.18 xG

Total Expected Goals: 2.66

Model Last Updated: 2026-08-21T09:08:29.789Z

Pre-Match Betting Odds (Pinnacle)

1X2 Match Result Odds

Home Win (Bologna): 2.35
Draw: 3.13
Away Win (Lazio): 3.53

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5: 2.31
Under 2.5: 1.68

Asian Handicap 0

Bologna (0): 1.62
Lazio (+0): 2.45

Odds Last Updated: 2026-08-24T15:06:07.815Z

Betting Value Analysis

SCORENEX AI compares model probabilities against market odds to identify value bets. When our AI probability is higher than the implied probability from bookmaker odds, this indicates potential value.

Home Win Edge: AI 44% vs Market 43% implied

Away Win Edge: AI 29% vs Market 28% implied

AI Prematch Analysis — Pre-Lineup

Bologna are the marginal home favorites (43.7% win probability vs 29.4% for Lazio and 26.9% for the draw), a modest edge that lines up with the shallow -0.25 Asian handicap rather than a clear quality gap between the sides. The scoring picture points to a tight, mid-scoring match — 2.66 total expected goals against a 2.25 goal line, with BTTS at 54.1% and Over 2.5 at 49.7% both sitting close to even. The more notable angle is on the Over side of the goals markets, where the model sees value against current prices, though that has to be read against a market that is priced unfavorably overall.

Bologna enter as the marginally favored side, with the -0.25 handicap reflecting home advantage rather than a clear quality gap — the 43.7/26.9/29.4 split leaves plenty of room for either outcome, and Lazio's 29.4% price sits close enough to the draw that this reads as a competitive fixture rather than a mismatch. The lambda split (1.487 home, 1.176 away) points to Bologna doing more of the attacking work, but neither number is high enough to suggest a one-sided game; the 2.66 total expected goals and 2.25 goal line describe a match hovering right around the mid-scoring threshold, which is why the most likely individual scorelines are tight ones — 1-1 at 12.8%, 1-0 at 9.8%, 2-1 at 9.1%, 2-0 at 7.7% — none separating far from the pack. Both-teams-to-score at 54.1% and Over 2.5 at 49.7% both sit close to a coin flip, reinforcing that this is a match without a strong lean on either margin or total goals. Where the numbers get more interesting is in how the model's estimates compare with what the market is actually pricing. The clearest gaps show up on the Over side of the goals markets — Over 2 goals priced with a 7.4% edge, and the first-half Over 1 line showing a similar 7.3% edge across two different bookmakers — suggesting the model sees more goals coming, particularly in the first half, than current prices reflect. But this has to be read against the full picture: of 637 quotes checked for this match, only 144 came back with a positive edge against 493 negative, with the best edge at 7.4% and the worst at -13.6%. Because a bookmaker's two-sided market always removes more than it gives back — Bologna's own margin runs 3.3% across the 14 books quoted — a positive edge on one side of a line is mirrored by a larger negative edge on the other, so these Over-goals reads are localized signals within a broadly unfavorable book, not evidence that this match is priced generously overall. Head-to-head history between these sides has swung widely — Lazio winning 0-2 as recently as March 2026, a 1-1 draw in February 2026, another 1-1 in December 2025, but also a 5-0 Bologna rout in March 2025 and a 3-0 Lazio win in November 2024 — underlining how little recent history can be trusted to repeat itself here. That's compounded by incomplete standings data for both sides, so current club form can't be verified from what's available. Lineups haven't been confirmed either, so nothing here accounts for who is actually available to play. And with these prices drawn roughly 80 hours ahead of kickoff, the numbers above — the handicap, the goal total, and especially the edges on the Over markets — are all liable to move meaningfully as team news and market weight come in closer to kickoff.

Home Win: 43.7%, Draw: 26.9%, Away Win: 29.4%

Expected Goals: 2.7 (Home xG: 1.49, Away xG: 1.18)

Most Likely Score: 1-1

Over 2.5: 49.7%, BTTS: 54.1%